90,000 swine flu death? Probably not possible

The swine flu H1N1 could die, 90,000 Americans this winter and 1.8 million hospital? Yes - but not likely, say officials at the CDC.

Figures in a report to the Chairperson of the Scientific Advisory Committee technology. The report suggests that a "plausible" swine flu, 40% of Americans and overwhelming hospitals with 300,000 patients who were infected with care.
"PCAST [President's Council for Science and Technology Advisers] stressed that planning is a scenario not a prediction," said the report by 7 Published in August, but only yesterday.

What is the probability of a scenario? Not really, "said Anne Schuchat, MD, CDC director of the Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. Schuchat the issue during a two-day meeting this week of senior officials of the pandemic flu, talk with reporters.

"We do not believe this is necessarily the most likely scenario, but we must plan and be ready to" Schuchat said, noting that it is the policy of the CCC is made in the worst case possible.

Health and Human Service, Dr. Kathleen Sebelius said the report of the Presidential Commission as "very useful" to justify the extensive preparations for the flu season in the fall, and indicates where further work.

"We do not know until the middle of flu season, the seriousness of this," Sebelius said during the meeting with journalists. "We believe that the H1N1 virus to infect many people. Even if we have been casing of H1N1 in general, moderately novel, people in hospital, and we have more deaths."

Sebelius noted that if the H1N1 influenza vaccine in pigs begins October 15, it is expected that people who received two doses three weeks apart to-be. This means that any one in the vaccine are not protected by five to eight weeks after receiving the first dose.

Schuchat said that most of the people receiving the vaccine to protect up to Thanksgiving. Meanwhile, he said, many experts predict the recurrence of cases of influenza began much earlier.

What this means, Schuchat, and a parade of officials from the CDC has indicated that it will take more than one vaccine to fight the flu this fall. Public health also depends on personal acts of the efforts of the government.

"The hands and the house" are the key tools like Sebelius said. The message is also important because it is simple:

1. Wash your hands often or disinfected.
2. Hands: cough or sneeze into a tissue or sleeve, not your bare hands. 3. Home: If you are sick, stay home until you feel better.